Boeing projects demand 44,040 new commercial jets by 2038, global fleet to exceed 50,000
Boeing released its 2019 Commercial Market Outlook at the 2019 Paris Air Show, reporting that growth in passenger volumes and increasing aircraft retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new jet aircraft valued at USD6.8 trillion over the next 20 years. The global commercial aircraft fleet will sustain the need for aviation services valued at USD9.1 trillion, resulting in a total commercial market opportunity of USD16 trillion through to 2038.
• Passenger traffic to grow at an average of 4.6% and cargo traffic to grow at 4.2%;
• 44% of new aircraft deliveries will replace ageing aircraft, while the rest will accommodate growth;
• The global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 aircraft by 2038, marking the first time the projected fleet has exceeded 50,000;
• Narrowbody aircraft will remain the largest segment, with projected demand for 32,420 new aircraft valued at USD3.8 trillion. The market will be driven “in large part” by the continued strength of LCCs, healthy replacement demand and continuing growth in the Asia Pacific;
• Boeing forecasts demand for 8340 new widebody passenger aircraft valued at more than USD2.6 trillion. Demand is led in part by “a significant wave” of older aircraft requiring replacement “in a few years”. Operators are expected to require 1040 new large production freighters;
• The Asia Pacific, including China, will continue to lead future growth, accounting for 40% of aircraft deliveries and 38% of total services value. North America and Europe round out the top three regions for future growth;
• The global fleet will continue to generate significant demand for aviation services, including supply chain support, maintenance and engineering services, aircraft modifications and airline operations. Boeing forecasts a USD9.1 trillion market for commercial aviation services with the growth of 4.2% p/a;
• Major services categories are forecast to include a USD2.4 trillion market for maintenance and engineering and a USD1.1 trillion market for flight operations.
Randy Tinseth, VP – Commercial Marketing, Boeing commented, “Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion. In fact, we see a market that is broader, deeper and more balanced than we have seen in the past. The healthy market fundamentals will fuel a doubling of the commercial fleet over the next two decades and a massive ecosystem of lifecycle solutions to maintain and support it.”